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Unlocking the Secrets of USD/JPY: How to Profit from the World’s Most Traded Currency Pair

Summary of the Article:

The USD/JPY currency pair represents the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen and is influenced by the interest rates in the U.S. and Japan, as well as U.S. Treasury yields. The pair reflects market risk sentiment, with the yen often serving as a safe-haven currency. When U.S. Treasury yields rise, the USD tends to strengthen relative to the JPY, making the pair attractive for carry trades due to Japan’s historically low interest rates. Short-term traders often track two-year Treasury yields and the stock market, while long-term investors monitor 10- and 30-year yields. The relationship between bond prices, interest rates, and trade balances plays a crucial role in determining the direction of the USD/JPY pair.


Article: Mastering the USD/JPY Currency Pair: Insights for Profitable Trading

The USD/JPY currency pair is one of the most actively traded pairs in the forex market, drawing traders with its deep liquidity and potential for high returns. However, navigating this pair requires a nuanced understanding of its unique drivers—primarily U.S. Treasury yields and the contrasting interest rate policies of Japan and the United States.

The Mechanics of USD/JPY

At its core, USD/JPY reflects how many yen are needed to purchase one U.S. dollar. As a reserve currency pair, it attracts global investors looking to hedge risks or leverage market opportunities. The pair’s movements are particularly sensitive to the economic dynamics of both countries, with interest rates serving as a critical determinant.

Treasuries: The Key Driver

A defining feature of the USD/JPY pair is its strong correlation with U.S. Treasuries. Rising Treasury yields often push the U.S. dollar higher against the yen, as higher interest rates make U.S. assets more attractive to investors. Conversely, when yields drop, the yen tends to appreciate, reflecting its role as a safe haven in times of uncertainty.

This correlation makes Treasury bonds, notes, and bills essential indicators for traders. Short-term traders focus on two-year yields, while long-term investors turn to 10- and 30-year bonds to gauge potential shifts in the pair’s direction.

Market Sentiment and Risk Dynamics

The USD/JPY pair also serves as a barometer for market risk:

  • Risk-On Sentiment: Higher Treasury yields, driven by economic growth, typically weaken the yen relative to the dollar.
  • Risk-Off Sentiment: In times of panic or uncertainty, investors flock to the yen, strengthening it as U.S. bond prices rise and yields fall.

Japan’s historically low interest rates have cemented the yen’s position as the premier funding currency for carry trades. Traders often sell yen to invest in higher-yielding assets, boosting returns while taking advantage of Japan’s near-zero borrowing costs.

Trading USD/JPY Like a Pro

To trade USD/JPY effectively, timing and strategy are everything:

  • Best Trading Hours: Focus on the overlap between London and New York markets (8 a.m. to 11 a.m. ET), when volatility and liquidity are at their peak.
  • Carry Trades: Capitalize on interest rate differentials by borrowing yen to purchase U.S. assets like Treasuries or equities.
  • Monitor Economic Indicators: Keep an eye on Treasury yields, S&P 500 performance, and Japanese economic data for early signals of market shifts.

The Bottom Line

Trading USD/JPY offers opportunities to profit from global economic trends, interest rate dynamics, and risk sentiment. By understanding the interplay between Treasuries, interest rates, and market psychology, traders can position themselves to navigate this exciting pair with confidence.

Whether you’re going long on the dollar or short on the yen, the USD/JPY pair is a gateway to mastering the complexities of forex trading.

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STORIES

Driving into the Future: How Tesla’s Autopilot and FSD are Redefining the Road

Tesla’s Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (FSD) features represent advanced driver assistance systems designed to enhance safety and convenience for drivers. Key points include:

  • Autopilot Overview: Autopilot is standard on all new Tesla vehicles, equipped with eight external cameras and using Tesla Vision instead of radar. It aids in reducing the driver’s workload while maintaining safety.
  • Driver Responsibility: Both Autopilot and FSD require a fully attentive driver who must keep their hands on the wheel and be ready to take control at any time. Currently, these features do not make the vehicle fully autonomous.
  • Key Features:
  • Autopilot: Includes Traffic-Aware Cruise Control and Autosteer.
  • Full Self-Driving (Supervised): Adds features like Navigate on Autopilot, Auto Lane Change, Autopark, Summon, Smart Summon, and Traffic and Stop Sign Control.
  • Safety Protocols: Drivers must stay alert and maintain control while using these features, with visual reminders to keep hands on the wheel. Features like Autosteer measure torque applied to the wheel to ensure driver attentiveness.
  • Regulatory and Technical Considerations: Full autonomy will depend on achieving reliability beyond human drivers and gaining regulatory approval, which varies by region. Vehicles are continuously updated via over-the-air software updates.
  • Using Autopilot and FSD: Specific instructions for activating features, engaging controls, and operating the vehicle are provided, ensuring that users understand their responsibilities while utilizing these technologies.

Article: The Future of Driving: Unpacking Tesla’s Autopilot and Full Self-Driving Technology

As the automotive landscape continues to evolve, Tesla is at the forefront, championing a new era of driving with its advanced driver assistance systems—Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (FSD). Designed to elevate safety and convenience, these features are reshaping how we think about driving, transforming our vehicles into smart companions on the road.

Autopilot: A Step Towards Autonomy

Every new Tesla comes equipped with Autopilot, a cutting-edge driver assistance system that utilizes eight external cameras to enhance safety. With the transition to Tesla Vision—eliminating radar from the equation—Autopilot is designed to significantly reduce the workload on drivers while still requiring their full attention.

But what does this mean for you as a driver? Autopilot acts as an intelligent co-pilot, enhancing your driving experience through features like Traffic-Aware Cruise Control and Autosteer. These capabilities work in harmony to maintain safe speeds and assist in steering within clearly marked lanes, making your journeys smoother and less stressful.

Full Self-Driving: Almost There

While Autopilot provides a remarkable suite of features, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) takes it a step further. This package allows your vehicle to drive itself with minimal intervention, continuously improving over time. Imagine navigating through traffic with Navigate on Autopilot, which not only guides you from on-ramp to off-ramp but also suggests lane changes and engages turn signals automatically. It’s an advanced glimpse into a future where driving becomes even less about the mechanics and more about the destination.

Moreover, features like Auto Lane Change and Autopark empower drivers to effortlessly switch lanes or park their cars with just a touch. With Smart Summon, your Tesla can even navigate complex environments to come find you in a parking lot—perfect for those busy days when you need a little extra convenience.

Safety Comes First: The Role of the Driver

Despite the impressive capabilities of Autopilot and FSD, it’s crucial to remember that these features require a fully attentive driver. Safety is paramount; thus, users must keep their hands on the wheel and be prepared to take over at any moment. Tesla emphasizes that while their technology aims to surpass human driving skills, the ultimate goal of full autonomy hinges on extensive testing and regulatory approval.

Each time you engage Autopilot, a visual reminder prompts you to stay alert. Features like Autosteer actively measure torque applied to the steering wheel, ensuring that you remain engaged in the driving experience.

A Glimpse into the Future

Tesla’s commitment to innovation doesn’t end with the current capabilities of Autopilot and FSD. The company continuously pushes the boundaries with over-the-air software updates that enhance functionality and safety features. As these systems evolve, the vision of fully autonomous vehicles draws ever closer, promising safer and more efficient journeys for all.

In a world where traffic and road conditions can be unpredictable, Tesla’s Autopilot and Full Self-Driving technology are not just a technological marvel; they represent a significant leap toward a future where driving is about convenience, efficiency, and, most importantly, safety. The journey has only just begun—buckle up and enjoy the ride!

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STORIES

Nvidia’s RTX 5090 Leak: A Game-Changing Powerhouse Set to Redefine GPU Performance in 2024

Trusted GPU leaker @kopite7kimi has revealed potential specs for Nvidia’s upcoming flagship Blackwell GPUs. According to the leak, the RTX 5090 will feature significant upgrades, including 21,760 CUDA cores, 32GB of GDDR7 memory, and a 512-bit memory bus, making it nearly twice as powerful as the RTX 5080. The 5090 is expected to have a TDP (Thermal Design Power) of 600W and could be liquid-cooled. In contrast, the RTX 5080 will offer more modest improvements, with 10,752 CUDA cores, 16GB of GDDR7 memory, and a 256-bit memory bus. This strategy could position the 5090 as an ultra-premium GPU priced around $1,999, while the 5080 might be priced at $1,199.


Article:

Nvidia’s RTX 5090: A Glimpse Into the Future of GPU Powerhouses

In the fast-moving world of GPU development, rumors and leaks tend to keep tech enthusiasts on their toes, and the latest buzz surrounding Nvidia’s upcoming Blackwell series is no exception. According to @kopite7kimi, a well-known and reliable leaker, Nvidia’s next flagship GPU, the RTX 5090, is poised to be nothing short of a beast. If these leaks hold up, the RTX 5090 could be one of the most powerful GPUs ever made, setting new benchmarks for raw computing power and efficiency.

Doubling Down on Power

The leaked specs suggest that Nvidia is going all out with the RTX 5090, aiming to deliver a near double upgrade over the RTX 5080, which is impressive given the latter is already considered high-end. The RTX 5090 is rumored to feature 21,760 CUDA cores, dwarfing the 10,752 CUDA cores expected in the 5080. Additionally, it will sport 32GB of GDDR7 memory with a 512-bit memory bus, providing blazing fast performance for tasks like 4K gaming, AI workloads, and heavy content creation.

In contrast, the RTX 5080, with its 16GB of GDDR7 memory and a 256-bit bus, seems more focused on delivering solid performance for everyday high-end users, offering incremental upgrades from current-generation cards. This might appeal to more casual gamers or professionals who don’t need the full throttle of the 5090.

600W Powerhouse

One of the more striking details from this leak is the 600W TDP (Thermal Design Power) of the RTX 5090, marking a significant jump from the 450W TDP of its predecessors. Such a leap in power consumption indicates that Nvidia is pushing the limits of what is possible with modern GPUs. Despite this, the RTX 5090 is expected to retain a dual-slot design, hinting at a likely liquid-cooled solution to manage its heat output.

For the RTX 5080, the power increase is less dramatic, with a reported TDP of 400W—an 80W increase over the current-gen model, but manageable within air-cooled designs. This lower power consumption could be one of the reasons why the 5080 might attract those who want a balance between performance and efficiency without the need for high-end cooling solutions.

Pricing and Market Strategy

If the leaks are accurate, Nvidia’s pricing strategy for the Blackwell series could be a tale of two extremes. The RTX 5090, with its supercharged specs, could come with a price tag around $1,999 or higher, positioning it as an ultra-premium product for users who want nothing but the best. Meanwhile, the RTX 5080, expected to be priced closer to $1,199, might target the more price-conscious crowd.

By creating such a large performance and price gap between the two models, Nvidia could effectively offer clear choices for different types of users. High-end gamers, 3D modelers, and AI developers may flock to the RTX 5090 for its unmatched power, while those who don’t need such extreme performance might see the 5080 as the more reasonable option.

What to Expect in 2024

While it’s crucial to take leaks with a grain of salt, the rumored specs for Nvidia’s Blackwell series have sparked considerable excitement. If these GPUs live up to the hype, Nvidia could once again set a new standard in the graphics card market. The RTX 5090, with its unprecedented power, could redefine what’s possible in gaming, AI processing, and professional workloads, while the RTX 5080 could solidify itself as the go-to choice for most high-end users.

As we approach 2024, the official unveiling of the GeForce Blackwell series will reveal whether these rumors are accurate and what Nvidia has in store for the future of GPU technology. Whether you’re a gamer, a content creator, or an AI researcher, Nvidia’s upcoming lineup promises to push the boundaries of what’s possible in the world of computing power.

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Forecasts and Predictions

Nvidia’s 2024 Q4 Stock Forecast: Can the AI Powerhouse Break New Records Amid Investor Caution?

Nvidia (NVDA) has emerged as a key player in the artificial intelligence (AI) industry, experiencing rapid growth and becoming the world’s most valuable company, briefly surpassing Apple and Microsoft with a market cap reaching $3 trillion. Although NVDA stock remains below its June record highs, analysts remain bullish, with most recommending it as a “Strong Buy.” Nvidia’s AI dominance, particularly in chip production, keeps its stock forecast positive for Q4, with analysts predicting continued growth. However, some hedge funds have reduced their stakes in Nvidia, and key risks include custom chip development by competitors and geopolitical tensions with China. Despite these challenges, Nvidia’s chips remain in high demand, and the possibility of a significant downturn in Q4 is low.


Article:

Nvidia’s Q4 Stock Forecast: AI Juggernaut Poised for a Record-Breaking Finish

Few companies have made a more explosive impact in the world of investing over the past two years than Nvidia (NVDA). From being a key player in graphics processing to dominating the AI hardware market, Nvidia has set itself apart as a true market leader, seeing its market cap soar from $1 trillion to $3 trillion in record time. Though its stock hasn’t quite recaptured the highs seen in June, the bullish sentiment surrounding the company shows no signs of slowing down as it heads into Q4.

Analysts See a Bright Q4 for Nvidia

Nvidia’s role as the backbone of the AI chip market has propelled its stock to astronomical levels, consistently beating market expectations. Analysts have been quick to revise their targets for the stock, with 35 out of 40 analysts rating it a “Strong Buy.” The average price target is $149.47, with some estimates as high as $200—a potential 61% increase from current levels.

Even with Nvidia missing its June record highs, analysts remain highly confident that the company’s dominance in AI chips will continue driving its stock upward. Q4 is expected to be another positive quarter, as companies pour more capital into AI infrastructure. The AI boom shows no sign of slowing, with massive investments from tech giants like Microsoft, BlackRock, and Amazon, all vying for Nvidia’s cutting-edge chips.

AI Boom Fuels Nvidia’s Rise, but Hedge Funds Show Caution

Despite Nvidia’s incredible growth, some investors are hedging their bets. Notable hedge funds, including David Tepper’s Appaloosa Management and Stanley Druckenmiller’s Duquesne Family Office, trimmed their stakes in Nvidia during Q2. This move hints at concerns about future growth prospects, with some investors believing AI could be a bubble, as activist investor Paul Singer has suggested. Singer’s Elliott Management even sold its entire Nvidia stake, opting to invest in Arm Holdings instead.

But why the caution? Nvidia faces some challenges, including the possibility of increased competition from custom chip development by hyperscalers like Amazon, which is working with Intel on AI chip production. Additionally, geopolitical risks loom large, particularly in China, where Nvidia’s business could face further restrictions due to U.S. export controls.

Q4 Risks and Opportunities

While Nvidia’s China business is under pressure, and competitors are innovating, the company still benefits from insatiable global demand for AI chips. Earlier this month, Nvidia joined BlackRock and Microsoft in a $100 billion AI infrastructure partnership, further solidifying its place in the industry. This initiative, aimed at building data centers and energy infrastructure to power AI operations, is a strong indication that Nvidia’s chips will remain a cornerstone in the AI revolution.

Despite hedge fund pullbacks, Nvidia’s immense value in the AI market should not be underestimated. Tech majors are doubling down on AI investments, ensuring that Nvidia’s chips will continue to drive profits in the short to medium term. Risks, of course, remain—geopolitical issues and competitive pressures could alter the landscape—but the strong momentum behind AI development suggests that Nvidia is positioned to keep thriving.

Should You Buy Nvidia in Q4?

The key takeaway for investors is this: Nvidia may not have hit its June highs again, but it’s still on track for a strong Q4. The analysts’ optimism is a clear signal that the market sees room for continued growth, driven by Nvidia’s critical role in AI infrastructure. And while there may be risks from external factors like China and competition, the possibility of a major crash in Q4 seems slim. If Nvidia does experience a dip, many experts suggest it would be an opportunity to buy into a company that’s fundamentally reshaping the future of computing.

As the year draws to a close, investors should watch Nvidia closely. Its chips are the engines of the AI revolution, and with billions flowing into AI infrastructure, Nvidia’s future looks as bright as ever. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just watching from the sidelines, Nvidia’s Q4 could prove to be another historic chapter for this AI powerhouse.

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Artificial Intelligence

How Far Can Nvidia Stock Rise

Nvidia’s business is booming due to high demand for its AI-focused GPUs, especially for data centers, driving second-quarter revenue up by 122% to $30 billion. Operating income also surged by 174%, while new AI hardware products, based on the Blackwell architecture, are expected to stimulate further demand in 2025. Despite these strong financial results and a $50 billion share repurchase program, Nvidia’s stock price has fallen by 10% since August 28, 2024. This drop reflects concerns that the AI boom may not be sustainable, with questions around AI’s monetization and risks of overbuilding capacity in the sector. While Nvidia’s stock remains highly valued, hitting $200 per share seems unlikely without clearer success in the consumer AI market.


Article: Nvidia’s AI Boom: Rocketing Growth Faces a Crossroad

Nvidia, the chipmaking titan, has been riding a massive wave of success, particularly due to its cutting-edge role in artificial intelligence (AI). The demand for AI-powered data center graphics processing units (GPUs) has skyrocketed, driving the company’s revenue up by an astonishing 122% in just one year. With second-quarter revenue hitting $30 billion and operating income jumping 174%, Nvidia’s business continues to soar to new heights.

But while this momentum is impressive, Nvidia’s stock price tells a different story. Despite the company’s outstanding performance and the approval of a massive $50 billion share repurchase plan, its stock has dropped by 10% since August 2024. The question now is: Has the AI hype reached its peak, and is Nvidia’s stock destined to plateau?

The Cloud Over the AI Horizon

AI is the future—there’s no doubt about that. Nvidia’s powerful GPUs are at the core of training AI models and enabling everything from ChatGPT to complex machine learning algorithms. But the hype surrounding AI comes with risks. The monetization of AI, especially in consumer-facing software, remains uncertain. Open-source competitors, like Meta’s Llama and Elon Musk’s Grok, add competitive pressure, making it difficult to charge premium prices for AI-powered services.

Additionally, history shows that industries like the internet and electric vehicles experienced similar hype cycles, where early excitement led to overbuilding capacity before real demand materialized. If this trend holds true for AI, Nvidia’s hardware sales could hit a ceiling, even as AI adoption becomes more widespread.

Can Nvidia Reach $200?

Nvidia’s market cap is already a staggering $2.84 trillion, making it the third-largest company globally. The stock would need to rally 73% to hit $200, potentially positioning Nvidia as the world’s largest company. Yet, there’s uncertainty about whether this is possible. Nvidia’s business model still hinges on speculative future growth in the AI sector, making it difficult to justify a further surge in stock price without concrete results from AI’s monetization.

For now, Nvidia’s rise has been phenomenal, but its future hinges on how the AI market evolves—and whether it can continue to capture both market share and investor enthusiasm. Whether it can repeat its past success remains a compelling, yet unanswered, question.

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STORIES

Two AI Stocks Besides Nvidia That Can Steal The Show

As Nvidia’s valuation skyrocketed from $360 billion to $3.46 trillion between early 2023 and June 2024, it became a poster child for AI-related growth. However, as Nvidia faces increasing competition and potential declines in pricing power, investors are looking to other promising AI stocks: Tesla and Mobileye Global.

Tesla: A Vision for Autonomous Growth

Tesla, led by CEO Elon Musk, is positioning itself as a leader in electric vehicles (EVs) and autonomous driving technology. Cathie Wood of Ark Invest has set an ambitious price target of $2,600 per share by 2029, implying an upside of 1,050%. The core of this bullish outlook lies in Tesla’s potential to dominate the autonomous ride-hailing market through its robotaxi initiative. Wood estimates that by 2029, Tesla could generate $1.2 trillion in sales, with a significant portion stemming from robotaxi operations.

Despite Tesla’s achievements in EV manufacturing, there are concerns about its ability to fulfill these lofty projections. The company currently lacks any fully autonomous robotaxis on the road and has struggled to advance its self-driving technology beyond Level 2 autonomy. Furthermore, increased competition in the EV space has pressured Tesla’s operating margins, and the company faces challenges from rivals launching their own vehicles with advanced autonomous features.

Mobileye Global: A Leader in Driver Assistance

Mobileye Global, known for its advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving technologies, is another stock to watch. With analysts projecting that Mobileye’s stock could jump to $35 per share—an increase of 216%—the company is well-positioned in the evolving EV landscape. Mobileye’s EyeQ chips power its SuperVision ADAS, which enhances vehicle safety through multiple cameras and autonomous vehicle mapping.

However, Mobileye is not without its challenges. The EV industry faces growing pains, including infrastructure limitations that have affected global sales. Additionally, delays from key customers and new tariffs in Europe and the U.S. have prompted Mobileye to temper its sales forecasts, with projected revenue now lower than previous expectations.

Conclusion

While Nvidia has been the standout performer in the AI sector, Tesla and Mobileye Global offer compelling growth narratives. Tesla’s potential in autonomous ride-hailing and Mobileye’s advancements in ADAS technology highlight the ongoing evolution of the AI landscape. However, investors should remain mindful of the competitive pressures and market dynamics that could shape their trajectories in the coming years.

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Artificial Intelligence STORIES

Buzzing AI Stocks: Where Microsoft and NVIDIA Stand According to Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs recently highlighted the buzzing AI stocks, with a focus on companies like Microsoft and NVIDIA during its Communacopia + Technology Conference 2024. Key themes included AI, energy-efficient computing, and semiconductor technologies, all driving significant shifts in tech and telecommunications. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang addressed concerns about geopolitical tensions affecting chip supply from Taiwan and reassured that NVIDIA has the intellectual property to shift production if necessary. Despite concerns over slowing growth, analysts remain optimistic about NVIDIA’s future as AI demand continues to grow. Goldman Sachs continues to back semiconductor firms like NVIDIA for their future potential in the AI sector.

Main Story:

At the 2024 Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference, investors were treated to significant updates on the technology sector, with a special focus on artificial intelligence (AI) and energy-efficient computing. This year’s conference highlighted the critical role of AI and semiconductor technologies in reshaping industries like IoT, robotics, and autonomous vehicles. As AI continues to drive growth across sectors, companies like Microsoft and NVIDIA are positioned at the forefront of this technological revolution.

The Growing Importance of AI

One of the key themes of the conference was the increasing importance of AI in transforming business landscapes. As industries lean more on AI-driven solutions, the demand for advanced semiconductor technologies and energy-efficient computing is rising. AI isn’t just limited to traditional tech companies; it’s influencing areas such as manufacturing, telecommunications, and finance, indicating a multi-trillion-dollar shift across the global economy.

NVIDIA’s Position Amid Global Tensions

A major highlight of the event was NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang’s discussion with Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon. Huang addressed growing concerns over U.S.-China tensions and their potential impact on the global semiconductor supply chain. Specifically, there have been worries about Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s leading supplier of advanced AI chips for NVIDIA. Huang reassured investors that NVIDIA possesses the intellectual property and infrastructure needed to shift chip production if geopolitical tensions disrupt TSMC’s supply chain.

Although NVIDIA has faced recent setbacks—losing more than 15% of its market capitalization after issuing third-quarter guidance that suggested slowing earnings growth—the company remains a dominant player in the AI industry. Despite concerns about its reliance on a few large hyperscalers (four customers account for nearly half of its AI-related revenue), Goldman Sachs’ semiconductor analyst, Toshiya Hari, reiterated a Buy rating for NVIDIA. Hari highlighted that the demand for accelerated computing continues to grow, and NVIDIA is well-positioned to benefit from this trend.

Microsoft’s Place in the AI Race

Alongside NVIDIA, Microsoft (NASDAQ

) was highlighted as a key player in the AI revolution. Microsoft’s investment in AI has been instrumental in boosting its cloud and enterprise services, with the company actively integrating AI into its product offerings, including its Azure cloud platform and Office Suite. This integration positions Microsoft as a leader in delivering AI solutions across industries, making it one of the top buzzing AI stocks to watch.

The Future of AI and Semiconductors

The AI revolution shows no signs of slowing down, and both Microsoft and NVIDIA are at the heart of this technological transformation. As companies and governments alike invest heavily in AI-driven solutions, the demand for energy-efficient computing and advanced semiconductor technology will only grow. Despite recent market fluctuations, analysts remain optimistic about the long-term growth prospects for companies leading the charge in AI innovation.

Goldman Sachs continues to back Microsoft and NVIDIA, viewing them as essential players in the evolving AI landscape. With AI driving shifts in industries from autonomous vehicles to intelligent robotics, these tech giants are set to remain key players in the future of global technology.

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STORIES

Can Big Tech Bounce Back?

Big Tech stocks have seen their fair share of turbulence in 2023, with the once-booming AI trade cooling off and the tech-heavy Nasdaq shedding around 5% in September. But according to Goldman Sachs’ veteran tech analyst Kash Rangan, the solution to reigniting tech stock growth lies in a “magic formula.”

So, what’s this formula? According to Rangan, the convergence of two powerful forces: a steady cut in interest rates from the Federal Reserve and a burst of innovation — particularly in artificial intelligence (AI).

Rate Cuts: The First Ingredient

The Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy decision, expected on September 18, has garnered significant attention from investors. After a series of aggressive rate hikes to combat inflation, the Fed is now signaling potential cuts. Goldman Sachs’ chief economist Jan Hatzius suggests that a 25 basis point cut seems most likely, though a more aggressive 50-point reduction isn’t off the table.

Rangan believes that lower interest rates will not only make borrowing cheaper but also set the stage for faster growth, especially in capital-intensive sectors like tech. But cutting rates alone won’t be enough — there’s another key component.

AI Innovation: The Catalyst for Growth

Rangan argues that for tech stocks to regain their previous momentum, the sector needs to innovate its way to higher earnings growth — aiming for a 20%-30% growth rate, up from the current 11%. AI is the most promising avenue for this growth, with companies like Microsoft, Salesforce, and AMD pushing the envelope in AI monetization and chip advancements.

Salesforce, for instance, is developing AI-powered digital agents that automate customer service interactions, providing a new revenue stream through usage-based pricing. Meanwhile, AMD’s CEO, Dr. Lisa Su, recently unveiled a series of advanced AI chips slated for release through 2026.

A Bumpy Ride for AI Stocks

Despite the excitement surrounding AI, the road hasn’t been smooth. Chip giant Nvidia, once the darling of the AI boom, has seen its stock fall by 11% this month, with AMD down 7%. Concerns over slowing economic growth and an AI spending slowdown have weighed on these companies, but analysts like Rangan remain optimistic.

“Demand for accelerated computing is still strong,” noted Toshiya Hari, another Goldman Sachs analyst, adding that demand is broadening from major tech companies to enterprises and even sovereign states.

The Long-Term Outlook: Can Tech Rebound?

With AI innovation ramping up and the potential for lower interest rates on the horizon, Big Tech may just need the right combination of circumstances to power higher again. The next few months will be critical as investors watch both the Federal Reserve’s decisions and the unfolding innovations in AI.

While the market is currently in a pullback, there’s no doubt that AI still represents a massive growth opportunity. As Rangan puts it, “When you compound innovation with lower rates, magic happens.”

Will Big Tech rediscover its magic? Only time will tell, but the stage is set for a potential rebound — and those paying close attention could stand to benefit from the next wave of growth in AI and tech innovation.

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Forecasts and Predictions

US 30 Forecast, June10, 2024

On the daily timeframe, US30 encountered resistance around 40,004.37. It then dropped by 2,000 points before bouncing back up, recovering about half of that loss. Following this retracement, the trend appears poised to continue downward. Most major indicators are showing neutral or flat readings. The MACD still indicates positive momentum, but it has significantly slowed from a couple of weeks ago and could potentially turn negative. On the smaller 15-minute timeframe, the 200 MA is positioned just above, supporting the likelihood of a downward movement, though other moving averages are relatively flat. This suggests a bearish outlook for the day, or at best, a range-bound movement similar to the previous day.